Medium-term forecast of electricity

Medium-term forecast of electricity supplied to final consumers in Germany for the calendar years 2019 to 2023

In line with § 60 para. 1 of the German Renewable Energies Act (EEG) and the provisions of related legislation and ordinances (EEV, EEAV, WindSeeG, GEEV, etc.), the German transmission network operators (TNO) are obliged to prepare and publish a forecast for the development of the nationwide EEG surcharge every calendar year. Alongside the electricity output from EEG-funded installations, the forecast includes the electricity supplied to final consumers. This analyses the final consumption subject to the full EEG surcharge, non-privileged final consumption, as well as estimates of self-consumption and the electricity consumption of privileged electricity-intensive industry and railways, which pay a lower EEG surcharge.

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Objective

The objective of this study is to compile a forecast for electricity supplied to final consumers in Germany for the calendar years 2019 to 2023. The forecast results are divided into:

Final consumption, for which the EEG surcharge must be paid in full
Final consumption, for which the EEG surcharge is not paid or not paid in full and
Final consumption of self-suppliers broken down into self-consumption subject to the full EEG surcharge, partial surcharge or no surcharge.

In addition, an estimation is made of the associated surcharge payments.

Results

Publications

Klingler, A.-L.; Elsland, R.; Stute, J.; Klobasa, M. (2018): Mittelfristprognose zur deutschlandweiten Stromabgabe an Letztverbraucher für die Kalenderjahre 2019 - 2023 - Studie im Auftrag der deutschen Übertragungsnetzbetreiber. Karlsruhe: Fraunhofer ISI.

Project