Project

The global energy landscape is evolving rapidly, presenting a pivotal moment for Indonesia, Viet Nam, the Philippines, and Thailand, the focus countries of the project “Clean, Affordable and Secure Energy for Southeast Asia (CASE)”. Commitments to realising the Paris Agreement’s objective to limit global temperature increase to 1.5° C took a step forward with the decision to transition away from fossil fuels announced at COP28. This further affirms the need for significant shifts in the countries’ energy systems. While renewable energy is gaining traction in the region and green hydrogen appears increasingly accessible, current energy systems in the CASE countries are still heavily reliant on fossil fuels and government plans still include increasing fossil fuel use to meet growing energy demands.

Futher information:

Further information on the overall context of the IKI project Clean, Affordable and Secure Energy for Southeast Asia can be found under the following link: https://caseforsea.org/

Decarbonising the energy supply, transformation and demand sectors is essential for all countries to meet their emission targets. This modelling project aims to understand the challenges of decarbonising energy systems in the ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) region. It places particular emphasis on the role of gases in the energy futures of the four countries analysed in detail by the CASE  project: Indonesia, Viet Nam, the Philippines, and Thailand.

Two different scenarios are analysed for each modelled country, both reaching the same decarbonisation target of zero CO₂ emissions in the energy sector by 2070 at latest, with variations depending on the countries’ net-zero targets. Zero emissions in the energy sector can be considered as a prerequisite for net zero total emissions.

• The "Highly Electrified" scenario builds on a strong electrification rate and uses green gases only where there is no alternative.
• The "Green Gases" scenario builds on increased use of green gases, particularly hydrogen, in all applications where this is a viable option.

The decarbonisation options used as input for the two scenarios are based on analyses of available technologies for industry, transport, households and the energy sector. In addition, the current state of fossil gas utilisation, infrastructure and trade in the region is taken into account as a starting point.

The Fraunhofer ISI teamed up with Artelys for this study. The work was supervised by Agora Energiewende and the NewClimate Institute as part of the CASE project. A regular dialogue with local stakeholders in the focus countries provided additional insights from a regional perspective.

• Müller, V.P.; Eckstein, J.; Fragoso, J.; Männer, W.; Eichhammer, W. (2024): Decarbonisation pathways for Southeast Asia - Main report. Karlsruhe: Fraunhofer ISI.

Technical report:

• Gonzalez Venegas, F.; Müller, V.P.; Gasté, J.; Eckstein, J.; Bossmann, T.; Eichhammer, W. (2024): Decarbonisation pathways for Southeast Asia - Technical background report. Karlsruhe: Fraunhofer ISI.

• Artelys

May 2022 - February 2024