The market share of BEV among new registrations in Europe fell slightly by 0.2 percentage points (relative decrease of 1.5 percent) from 2023 to 2024 to just under 13 percent. A total of 949,000 units were sold, which also represents an increase in sales figures of more than three percent.
In Germany, the market share is expected to fall by almost 3.3 percentage points (relative decrease of almost 21 percent) to 12.5 percent. In terms of the number of electric vehicles sold, Germany recorded a decline of over 36,000 units or more than 16 percent compared to the previous year. This ratio shows that the total market is also experiencing some weakness.
The trend for plug-in hybrids is different. In Europe, there has been a slight decline in market share (minus 0.2 percentage points or 3.2 percent) with a simultaneous positive development in sales figures (plus 1.8 percent). In Germany, both market share (up 0.5 percentage points or almost 9 percent) and sales figures (up 14 percent) are increasing.
There are strong regional disparities in Europe. In Italy, the market shares in 2023 and 2024 for both BEV and PHEV are well below five percent and show a slightly negative trend year-on-year. In France, the situation for electric mobility is much better. The share of BEV increase by 1.8 percentage points to over 17 percent of all registrations (158,000 vehicles sold in the period). As the leader in electromobility, Norway has BEV shares of over 90 percent among new registrations. There are also major changes in Denmark. Electric vehicles gained over 14 percentage points year-on-year to reach a market share of almost 45 percent, making the country one of the fastest-growing markets for electric mobility.
Looking at the global market, a much more positive picture can be seen alongside individual reports of plant closures in Europe and North America. Asian manufacturers in particular are building up capacity worldwide. These manufacturers are also the ones planning additional production capacities in Europe (e.g. Dongfeng or BYD). Whether all of these plans will actually be realized is questionable. Nevertheless, they show a clear willingness to invest in electromobility.
The figures shown do not indicate a fundamental shift away from BEV. Whether the cancellation of the purchase premium alone is responsible for the decline in BEV sales in Germany cannot be conclusively determined.
Manufacturers' sales targets and political incentives
To get a potential picture of the future development of the figures, the electric car targets of individual manufacturers can be assessed. Politically, the combustion engine, at least with fossil fuels, is probably on the brink of extinction. According to the EU's current plan, a ban on the registration of new cars with combustion engines powered by fossil fuels is to apply from 2035. Motivated by this, among other things, manufacturers are communicating their exit from the production of combustion vehicles. BMW group, for example, has stated that they plan to sell at least 50 percent fully electric vehicles worldwide by 2030. Porsche is going one step further and is talking about 80 percent worldwide by 2030. Volkswagen is also aiming for the 80 percent mark by 2030, but only for Europe. In the USA and China, only more than 50 percent are expected by 2030. The manufacturer Stellanis wants to offer only electric vehicles on the European market by 2030, and some of the individual manufacturers in the group even earlier. Audi has announced that it will cease production of combustion vehicles by 2033. Hyundai also wants to invest a total of 16.5 billion euros in electric mobility by 2030 and even become one of the top 3 electric car manufacturers by the end of the decade. There are also other high-volume manufacturers that have varying degrees of ambition with regard to the transition to electric mobility. These are listed in Table 1.
| Manufacturer |
Electromobility goals in Europe |
| Alfa Romeo |
100% by 2027 |
| Audi |
100% by 2033 |
| BMW |
50% by 2030 |
| BYD* |
300.000 xEV by 2026 |
| Citroen |
100% by 2028 |
| DS |
100% by 2024 |
| Fiat |
100% by 2027 |
| Honda |
100% by 2040 |
| Hyundai |
100% from 2035 |
| Jaguar |
100% by 2025 |
| Jeep |
100% by 2030 |
| Kia |
40% by 203 |
| Lancia |
100% by 2025 |
| Mazda |
40% by 2030 |
| Maserati |
100% by 2028 |
| Mercedes-Benz* |
50% xEV by 2030 |
| Mitsubishi |
50% by 2030 |
| Nissan |
100% by 2030 |
| Opel |
100% by 2028 |
| Peugeot |
100% by 2030 |
| Polestar |
already at 100% |
| Porsche |
80% by 2030 |
| Renault |
100% by 2030 |
| Skoda |
min. 50% by 2030 |
| Subaru |
50% by 2030 |
| Suzuki |
80% by 2030 |
| Tesla |
already at 100% |
| Togg |
1 Mio. BEV by 2030 |
| Toytoa |
30% by 2030 |
| Volkswagen |
70% by 2030 |
| Volvo* |
90% xEV by 2030 |
Table 1: Announced sales targets for BEVs from individual manufacturers (*BEV and PHEV combined)
Despite all the announcements, there are also negative examples of the development of manufacturers' sales targets. Ford, for example, has cancelled its target of exclusively launching BEV on the European market by 2030. Mercedes is also softening its targets and instead of 100 percent BEV, only wants to sell at least 50 percent BEV or PHEV vehicles by 2030. Volvo and Toyota have also updated their forecasts.
In addition to the planned registration bans from 2035, there will also be general (driving) bans for combustion engines in various major cities in the coming years. In Stockholm, zones will be established by the end of 2024 in which only locally emission-free vehicles will be allowed to drive. This zone is to be extended to the entire city center by 2030. In Copenhagen, there is even talk of a ban on combustion vehicles for the entire city center by 2030, although the final decision has yet to be made. The same applies to Amsterdam. The city is planning a low emission zone for locally emission-free cars from 2030, although there are no concrete national regulations here either. Other cities such as Paris and London are planning an »ultra-low emission zone« and possible tolls for combustion vehicles. In the UK, original sales bans are being brought forward from 2035 to 2030. But there are also announcements regarding restrictions on combustion vehicles outside Europe: in Beijing, for example, there is a registration restriction that sets out precise requirements for new registrations of combustion vehicles and NEV (»New Energy Vehicles«).
In future, other costs such as the CO2 tax could have a significant impact in Europe. While the price per ton of CO2 will still be €45 in 2024, the price may rise to well over €100 per ton of CO2 by 2030. The additional costs for fuels will therefore increase in the coming years. Added to this are the CO2 fleet targets for car manufacturers, which will be significantly reduced again by the EU from 2025. Manufacturers are incentivized to comply with these targets, as failure to do so will quickly result in high fines. Another aspect that cannot yet be clearly assessed is the punitive tariffs imposed by the EU on BEV from China, which are still under discussion. Many experts are warning of negative consequences, as cheaper models will now become more expensive and demand for these models will fall as a result.
Market analysis for the coming years
The exciting question is how the market will develop in the coming years. Based on the sales year 2023, a forecast for future BEV sales figures in Europe up to 2030 was drawn up on the basis of manufacturer announcements.
A total of 31 manufacturers and the corresponding targets were analyzed. The BEV sales figures for 2023 were determined for each manufacturer and a forecast up to 2030 was created using the targets. An exponential curve was then drawn up from the sales figures for 2023 to the forecast sales figures for 2030 and the individual curves were added.2
With the planned targets, the manufacturers, which are shown in Table 1, would achieve total sales figures of at least eight million electric vehicles per year. This would also increase the market share of BEV in Europe from 15.4 percent to just under 60 percent in 2030. The reference figure for these shares is the total passenger car sales figures for 2023.
Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI
