Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI
Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

Projekt

NewTRENDs

New trends in energy demand modeling

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Background

In the 2030 Clean Energy for all Europeans Package from 2018, a policy frame was developed for the European Union (EU) to guide the achievement of the Paris Agreement and other objectives related to supply security and a competitive energy system. The 2050 Long-term Strategy of the EU develops possible scenarios to a climate neutral EU in 2050 with scenarios aiming at the full deployment of all technology options, while other scenarios assume an increase in climate awareness of EU citizens translating into lifestyle changes and consumer choices, as well as a more circular economy. 

While these scenarios present a major step forward beyond previous modelling approaches by integrating such societal trends into 2050 scenarios, much more progress is necessary to enhance the empirical basis for such New Societal Trends and their representation in models, in particular those covering the demand side. By New Societal Trends we understand societal developments arising from general Megatrends, which can have potentially large (increasing or decreasing) impacts on energy consumption as well as cross-sectoral demand shifts because they are not simply the extrapolation of already presently observed trends ("continuous or linear trends") but may take up speed when they are embraced by larger parts of the society ("disruptive or non-linear trends"). Such trends include in particular:

  • Transition of Consumers to Prosumagers
  • Move towards a Circular Economy and a Low-carbon industry
  • Digitalisation of the Economy and of private lives
  • Trends towards a Shared Economy

and will be the main focus of the present project.