Project

This project provides a sensitivity analysis of the impact of higher energy prices on the economic energy saving potentials. The level of energy savings which can be realised through energy efficiency investments that are economic, the so-called economic potential, plays an important role in informing the setting of the EU’s energy efficiency target level. Achieving a target in line with the economic potential should be feasible while maximising the economic, societal and climate benefits.

Energy prices are one very important factor in assessing the economic potential. Today’s whole-sale energy prices are more than three times of what the European Commission had assumed for 2030 in its assessment underpinning the Fit for 55 Package. The fundamental change of EU’s energy supply driven by the need to substitute Russian energy imports will lead to structurally higher prices in the long-term.

Fraunhofer ISI and Stefan Scheuer Consulting assessed the impact of different 2030 price levels on the economic energy saving potential in the EU. The project aims at supporting the recast of the Energy Efficiency Directive (EED)  currently discussed in European Parliament and Council. It is based on the update of the economic potential in a report by Stefan Scheuer Consulting and Fraunhofer ISI, published October 2021 . The report assessed the Fit for 55 package published by the Commission in July 2021. The assessment of the economic potentials was based on energy price projections provided in the EU Reference Scenario 2020 (REF2020) which was published by the European Commission in 2021.

The economically achievable 2030 final energy consumption and reduction compared to the REF 2020 baseline of the European Union (864 Mtoe) are:

• at REF 2020 energy price projections: 718 Mtoe or -17%;
• with a wholesale price increase by 30%: 699 Mtoe or -19%; and
• with doubled wholesale price: 667 Mtoe or -23%.

The European Commission has proposed a target of 787 Mtoe or -9% in the recast of the Energy Efficiency Directive, July 2021. Tapping the economic energy savings potential will enhance supply security and reduce the energy system costs. It will protect households and businesses from unnecessarily high energy bills caused by an oversized energy supply.

• Assessing the impact of high energy prices on the economic potentials for energy savings in the EU

from February to April 2022

• Deutsche Unternehmensinitiative Energieeffizienz e.V. (DENEFF), Berlin
• ROCKWOOL Group

• Stefan Scheuer Consulting

High energy prices drive up need for energy savings