Project

Study evaluating the current energy efficiency policy framework in the EU and providing orientation on policy options for realising the cost-effective energy efficiency/saving potential until 2020 and beyond.

The analysis of this study by Fraunhofer ISI on behalf of DG ENER had two main objectives:

• to report on the evaluation of the achievement of the 2020 energy efficiency target of 20%;
• to discuss energy efficiency potentials in two different time horizons (2020, 2030) mainly in view of a 2030 target-frame for energy efficiency.

For this purpose we carried out an assessment of the effectiveness of a target selection of national measures and policies up to 2020 (bottom-up policy analysis of Art. 3 of the EED) and a decomposition analysis of past energy efficiency achievements (2000-2012 and 2008-2012) based on Eurostat data and projections to 2020.

Furthermore we did a bottom-up modelling analysis of policies up to 2020 based on national and EU policies and a bottom-up modelling of energy efficiency potentials up to 2030.

Our findings with the three methods (bottom-up policy analysis, decomposition analysis and modelling analysis) show for both primary and final energy a gap 3% to 0% point, the latter for the bottom-up policy analysis. This implies, however, that a variety of planned measures are implemented by the EU Member States though we have taken already into account and confirmed through interviews that a number of measures proposed in the second NEEAPs and the Article 7 notifications will have reduced impacts as compared to the planning. NEEAP3 reports were not yet available for the measure analysis.

For 2030 we find, using the same metrics as for the 2020 target that economic potentials from a macro-economic perspective, using low discount rates and assumptions on non-economic instruments instead of economic instruments to overcome non-economic barriers, may be 37% in 2030 for final energy and 40% for primary energy. The baseline reaches around 24% reduction in 2030.