Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISIHeyen, N. B.; Friedewald, M.; Jochem, E.; Reiß, T.; Thielmann, A. (2024): Assessing Technological Innovations: From Early Warning to the Governance of Socio-technical Transformations. In: Edler, J.; Walz, R. (Ed): Systems and Innovation Research in Transition. Research Questions and Trends in Historical Perspective. Cham: Springer.
Technology assessment over the past 50 years
A field of research as old as Fraunhofer ISI
Technology assessment (TA) is an interdisciplinary field of problem-oriented research with the following aims: to detect the emergence of new technologies at an early stage; to identify the opportunities, risks and challenges they present for society; and to evaluate the current and predicted future need for action they bring with them. TA is therefore primarily a tool for generating knowledge that is useful in making decisions relating to how policy, industry and society should handle new technologies.
The TA field of research is roughly as old as Fraunhofer ISI itself. We are taking the institute’s 50th anniversary as an opportunity to sketch out how TA has developed over that time.
A question for experts
During the first phase (1960s to 1980s), TA processes were mainly underpinned by scientific experts in the relevant field of technology, who would lend their knowledge and make assessments. Some examples of topics covered were the impact of car ownership and how road traffic was set to develop or the use of solar energy, but the experts also looked at the development of suitable methods for analyzing and evaluating new technologies (for identifying unintended consequences, for instance).
In the second phase (1980s to 2000s), it became increasingly clear that it was not enough to base TA processes solely on the expertise and opinions of people from the established scientific community. Instead, new technologies needed to be analyzed and evaluated using a range of different perspectives, knowledge and experience that were relevant to policy and society, be that via stakeholders, alternative research institutions, public discourse or citizens (as in the ADAPTA project).
The goal is to shape innovations responsibly
In the third phase, which began in the 2000s and is still ongoing now, a mix of the TA processes that have been tried out thus far are employed, depending on the technology being assessed and the need for societal debate. Important areas covered so far have been the modern biomedical promise of “personalized medicine” or the opportunities and risks presented by digitalizing democratic processes, for example. Now more than ever, this field of research is also trying to influence technology development processes at an early stage, so as to help shape technical innovations responsibly.
In future, TA and Fraunhofer ISI will have to grapple with technological questions of how to transform societies to create a way of life that is globally equitable and respects the natural limits of our planet. Only time will tell whether a fourth TA phase is on the horizon.
Technology assessment at Fraunhofer ISI: Five projects from five decades
Swipe through the years
1976: Motorization and its impact - examining the issue of TA feasibility using ex-post projections
The ex-post analysis covered the period from 1953 to 1973. Since car ownership took hold around 30 years earlier in the USA than in Germany, the relevant data from the USA could be translated to Germany really well, using the historical analogy approach. If forecasters in 1953 had predicted correctly how GDP and private income would develop, it would have been possible to predict the impact of car ownership very accurately using historical data from the USA.
1988: Technology assessment using the example of solar energy use
This investigation was about conducting a technology impact assessment for three specific solar technologies. At the same time, the analysis aimed to examine the methodological problems and limits of technology assessments more closely. Two decentralized solar technologies were chosen, since they were either already in use (thermal collector systems) or about to launch on the market (photovoltaic systems). Photovoltaic solar energy utilization by means of satellites has also already been included, mainly for methodological reasons.
1998-2001: Assessing debate and participative technology assessment (ADAPTA)
Conditions were identified under which specific forms of participative technology assessment (pTA) occur in the public debate. The analysis focused on three case studies (urban traffic, gene food and genetic testing) in six European countries (Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Portugal and the United Kingdom). Results indicate that the overall impact of public debate on the assessment of new technologies in the political domain was rather weak.
2005-2008: Office of Technology Assessment at the German Bundestag (TAB): Personalized Medicine medicine and the healthcare system – Future report
Medical services that can be adapted more specifically to the individual than in the past are seen as having the potential to achieve more ambitious quality and cost targets in healthcare. The Committee on Education, Research and Technology Assessment has commissioned a future report on the subject. Already in the early phase of the research and health policy discussion on the future option, it sought to analyze which lines of development in the life sciences can contribute to individualized medicine; how the current state of science and technology and the possible future developments are to be assessed; and what implications could arise from individualized medicine for medical care, for companies and health insurance.
2016-2018: Technology options and systems to strengthen participatory and direct democracy
How can the Internet contribute to the development and establishment of a genuinely European public (e-public)? What are good practices for e-participation in Europe and how can public organisations profit from opening up their processes to a wider audience (e-participation)? Is e-voting a realistic means to increase electoral turnout and what are the conditions for the success of e-voting? These are the main questions being dealt with in this report, which is the final report of the STOA-project on e-democracy. The report includes the analysis and insights of a research and consultation project in which three scientific institutes, eleven external experts as participants of two workshops and several Members of the European Parliament were involved.
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