The report of the project »Long-term scenarios for the transformation of the energy system in Germany« (Long-term scenarios 3), which has now been published, was commissioned by the German Federal Ministry of Economics and Climate Protection and includes the scenarios for the transformation of the industrial sector.

High-resolution system modeling allows in-depth conclusions to be drawn

The energy model FORECAST used by Fraunhofer ISI allows a detailed mapping of the industrial sector and is particularly characterized by a high technological and spatial resolution. Accordingly, conclusions about the spatial distribution of future electricity and hydrogen demand within Germany are possible, for example. Technological prerequisites for the transformation can be broken down and identified in detail by industries and processes.

Three scenarios include different paths to greenhouse gas neutrality

The three calculated scenarios TN-Electricity, TN-H2, and TN-PtG/PtL achieve a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the industrial sector of about 97% compared to 1990. The use of fossil fuels and biomass is completely eliminated. Remaining residual emissions are distributed among several, mostly relatively small sources of industrial processes. In each of the scenarios, the energy supply is strongly converted to electricity, hydrogen or power-to-gas.

Building a hydrogen transportation infrastructure is a no-regret option

The scenarios show a hydrogen demand of over 150 TWh per year just to supply the 20 or so largest chemical and steel sites. The corresponding supply infrastructure could be built along existing natural gas routes. Clear expansion targets would provide the industry with planning certainty for the conversion of the plant fleet.

Electrification is the most efficient option for CO₂-neutral process heat

Electrification is the most efficient way to supply process heat in a CO₂-neutral way in most industries, since there are fewer conversion losses as in the case of hydrogen or synthetic hydrocarbon or power-to-gas generation. At the same time, there are fewer uncertainties for companies regarding the future availability of green power at the site. In contrast, electrification requires extensive modification or replacement of existing boilers and furnaces for most processes. The use of hybrid systems that can flexibly use hydrogen, electricity or natural gas can play a key role here and enable the industry to gradually transform.

Accelerated expansion of renewables essential for rising electricity demand

Complete electrification of process heat would roughly double the electricity consumption of industry in Germany, to over 400 TWh per year. A focus on hydrogen or power-to-gas would entail an even higher electricity demand for the generation of the corresponding energy carriers. Accordingly, accelerated expansion of renewables (especially wind and solar) for power generation and the elimination of grid bottlenecks is both a necessary and robust strategy.

An energy- and resource-efficient circular economy must be the guiding principle

In all three scenarios, the study shows that both ambitious progress in energy and resource efficiency and the expansion of the circular economy are key prerequisites for a successful industrial turnaround. Otherwise, the demand for CO₂-neutral secondary energy sources would be much higher, leading to higher costs and even greater challenges in transforming the energy system. Strategies to switch to a circular economy have a major impact, especially for CO₂-intensive basic materials such as steel or plastics.

Perspectives needed for storage or use of emissions from industrial processes

The cement and lime industries need clear perspectives on the storage or use of CO₂ emissions. Without the development of a CO₂ transport infrastructure linking the important cement and lime production sites with possible sinks in storage facilities or the chemical industry, these industries cannot achieve climate neutrality. This also requires fundamental legal and political decisions.

Dr. Tobias Fleiter, head of the business unit »Demand Analyses and Projections« at Fraunhofer ISI, concludes: »The scenarios we have calculated show that the next few years in particular are crucial for achieving the climate targets. The new sector target of the amended Climate Protection Act further intensifies the pressure to act and can only be achieved if policymakers adapt the regulatory framework in such a way that industry has a clear perspective for the economic, large-scale industrial operation of CO₂-neutral manufacturing processes. The robust strategy elements we have identified should enable decisions and course-setting in the short term, although there are of course still major uncertainties in the long term.«

In the Long-term Scenarios 3 project, Fraunhofer ISI is working together with Consentec, TU Berlin and IFEU. In addition to this report on the industrial sector, new results and reports on other aspects of the energy system are regularly published on the project website www.langfristszenarien.de. In addition to the report, a publicly available dataset is also available here, which can be explored online in the data explorer.

The Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI analyzes the origins and impacts of innovations. We research the short- and long-term developments of innovation processes and the impacts of new technologies and services on society. On this basis, we are able to provide our clients from industry, politics and science with recommendations for action and perspectives for key decisions. Our expertise is founded on our scientific competence as well as an interdisciplinary and systemic research approach.